65%

Win Probability

+18.0

Projected Margin

CI: [-2.0 to +38.0]

Boom Potential

Chargers D/ST

Bust Risk

Juwan Johnson (57%), Omarion Hampton (59%), Bucky Irving (48%), Jameson Williams (43%)

Start/Sit Decisions

Locked Slots (players already played):

WR: 🔒 Jaxon Smith-Njigba 23.6 pts

K: 🔒 Jason Myers 2.0 pts

Pending Decisions:

WR_LOCKED: Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba over N/A LOCKED (TNF 23.6 pts). Second WR slot: Start Jameson Williams.

QB: Start Jacoby Brissett over Jordan Love Higher projection (21.0 vs 15.0)

RB1: Start Bucky Irving over Omarion Hampton Higher projection (14.0 vs 13.0)

RB2: Start Omarion Hampton over Tyjae Spears Higher projection (13.0 vs 10.0)

D/ST: Start Chargers D/ST over Rams D/ST Higher projection (12.0 vs 4.0)

FLEX: Start Tetairoa McMillan over Jayden Reed Higher projection (13.0 vs 13.0)

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

Slot	Player	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Confidence
QB	Jacoby Brissett	ATL	18.8	21.0	BOOM	MEDIUM
RB	Bucky Irving	CAR	15.2	14.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
RB	Omarion Hampton	DAL	13.2	13.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	LAR	19.9	23.6	BOOM	MEDIUM
WR	Jameson Williams	PIT	15.9	22.0	BOOM	MEDIUM
TE	Juwan Johnson	NYJ	9.1	9.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
K	Jason Myers	LAR	8.1	2.0	BUST	MEDIUM
D/ST	Chargers D/ST	DAL	4.2	12.0	BOOM	MEDIUM
WR	Tetairoa McMillan	TB	13.1	13.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM

Waiver Wire

Semi-finals roster optimization - maximize ceiling for championship week positioning

#1 Hunter Henry (TE, NE)

DROP: Juwan Johnson (if seeking upgrade)

Most consistent TE on waivers. Rolling avg (10.5) above season avg (9.9). Better floor than Juwan Johnson who faces wind at MetLife. Week 17: vs BUF (...

#2 49ers D/ST (D/ST, SF)

DROP: Rams D/ST

SCORCHING HOT trend - rolling avg 11.1 vs season avg 3.6 (208% improvement). Week 17 vs DET is tough but IND matchup this week is solid. Drop Rams D/S...

#3 Rashid Shaheed (WR, SEA)

DROP: Conditional - bench depth

Already played TNF - check actual score. Deep threat with big-play upside. Neutral trend shows consistency. Could be WR insurance if Rashee Rice ruled...

⚠️ Avoid: Keenan Allen, Oronde Gadsden II, Quentin Johnston, Emanuel Wilson

See Waivers tab for full analysis and injury opportunities.

Executive Summary

Week 16 playoff semifinal against 4th and pinches (10-5). Our 9-6 Valued Customers face a critical matchup with ESPN projecting us as 2-point underdogs (123.5 vs 125.5). Key advantage: Jacoby Brissett has emerged as a matchup-proof QB3, posting 20+ points in every Arizona start, facing a vulnerable Falcons defense in a dome. The Chargers D/ST draw the best matchup in fantasy against a broken Cowboys offense (32nd worst). Concerns center on Rashee Rice's ceiling capped by Mahomes injury (Minshew starts) and MHJ remaining OUT with a heel injury.

Key Insights

CRITICAL: Patrick Mahomes OUT for season - Gardner Minshew starts for KC, caps Rice/Pacheco ceiling
Brissett QB3 projection: 20+ floor every AZ start, ATL allows top-6 QB 2 of 3 weeks, dome game
Chargers D/ST SMASH: 55% XGB boom, DAL 32nd (worst) vs opposing D/ST
MHJ OUT: Heel injury, missed 2 straight - but NOT on IR = Week 17 return possible
Juwan Johnson INCENTIVE: needs 8 catches for 250k bonus - Saints may target him
Highest total: DET vs PIT (51.5) = Jameson Williams ceiling game
Lowest total: KC @ TEN (37.5) = Rice/Pacheco ceiling concern

Matchup Status (Week 16)

25.6 - 0.0 vs 4th and pinches

Games Completed (3)

Player	Pos	Slot	Actual	ESPN	LLM
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	WR	✓ 23.6	19.9	23.6
Jason Myers	K	K	✓ 2.0	8.1	2.0
Rams D/ST (bench)	D/ST	BE	✓ 4.0	5.7	4.0

Games Pending (14)

Player	Pos	Slot	ESPN	LLM
Jacoby Brissett	QB	QB	18.8	21.0
Bucky Irving	RB	RB	15.2	14.0
Omarion Hampton	RB	RB	13.2	13.0
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	WR	13.1	13.0
Juwan Johnson	TE	TE	9.1	9.0
Jameson Williams	WR	RB/WR/TE	15.9	22.0
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	D/ST	4.2	12.0
Devin Singletary (bench)	RB	BE	7.5	4.0
Isiah Pacheco (bench)	RB	BE	9.1	6.0
Jayden Reed (bench)	WR	BE	11.2	13.0
Jordan Love (bench)	QB	BE	17.4	15.0
Rashee Rice (bench)	WR	BE	17.8	5.0
Tyjae Spears (bench)	RB	BE	8.7	10.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench)	WR	IR	14.2	12.0

25.6 Actual

129.6 LLM Total

115.1 ESPN Total

Opponent: 4th and pinches

Opponent Games Completed (1)

Player	Pos	Slot	Actual	ESPN	LLM	vs ESPN
Colby Parkinson (bench)	TE	BE	✓ 4.1	9.6	---	-5.5

Opponent Games Pending (15)

Player	Pos	Slot	ESPN	LLM
Baker Mayfield	QB	QB	16.6	---
Michael Carter	RB	RB	11.0	---
Rico Dowdle	RB	RB	15.2	---
DK Metcalf	WR	WR	13.5	---
Michael Wilson	WR	WR	13.4	---
Trey McBride	TE	TE	16.8	---
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	RB/WR/TE	23.8	---
Harrison Butker	K	K	8.0	---
Jaguars D/ST	D/ST	D/ST	5.6	---
Aaron Rodgers (bench)	QB	BE	14.8	---
Darren Waller (bench)	TE	BE	9.3	---
Jordan Addison (bench)	WR	BE	10.5	---
Kareem Hunt (bench)	RB	BE	10.5	---
Rome Odunze (bench)	WR	BE	0.0	---
Romeo Doubs (bench)	WR	BE	9.6	---

0.0 Opp Actual

110.0 Opp LLM Total

123.9 Opp ESPN Total

Projected Margin: +19.6 pts

Jordan Love (GB vs CHI)

Projections: ESPN 17.4 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 21% BOOM / 53% MODERATE. XGB: 27% BOOM / 21% BUST. SNOW GAME (100% precip, 28F, 10mph wind). Weather suppresses passing upside significantly. Despite decent game total (46.5), snow conditions favor running game. Mode: MODERATE (weather-adjusted down). Projection: 15.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-24).

Context: O/U: 46.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	DEN	14.8	17.0	13.9	-0.9
14	CHI	17.6	18.0	19.3	+1.6
13	DET	15.7	18.2	25.8	+10.0
12	MIN	17.4	-	7.1	-10.4
11	NYG	16.3	-	17.7	+1.3
10	PHI	17.0	-	7.8	-9.1
9	CAR	18.1	-	9.0	-9.1
8	PIT	17.1	-	28.3	+11.2
7	ARI	17.4	-	13.4	-4.0
6	CIN	19.3	-	15.0	-4.4
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	DAL	18.6	-	26.3	+7.7
3	CLE	16.0	-	11.1	-4.9
2	WSH	17.6	-	20.9	+3.3
1	DET	14.9	-	15.9	+1.0

Trending up: 19.7 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.51)
Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs ATL)

Projections: ESPN 18.8 | LLM 21.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 74% BOOM (historical). XGB: 14% BOOM (this week). MC heavily favors boom, XGB conservative. Vegas #5 QB (18.3), game total 48.5. High-scoring game script + dome environment. Trust MC historical pattern given favorable game environment. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 21.0 pts (within BOOM range 17-32).

Context: O/U: 48.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	HOU	13.9	16.0	20.6	+6.7
14	LAR	15.3	19.0	19.0	+3.7
13	TB	17.2	20.5	19.6	+2.4
12	JAX	16.7	-	18.7	+1.9
11	SF	17.9	-	21.9	+3.9
10	SEA	15.3	-	19.4	+4.2
9	DAL	19.4	-	24.8	+5.4
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	16.6	-	19.8	+3.2
6	IND	13.4	-	20.7	+7.3
5	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	CAR	0.0	-	0.2	+0.2
1	NO	0.1	-	0.0	-0.1

6-game streak of beating projections
Averaging 12.3 pts vs 9.7 projected (+27%)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.85)
Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Bucky Irving (TB vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 17% BOOM / 59% MODERATE. XGB: 13% BOOM / 48% BUST. Clear lead back, good game total (45.5), clear weather. CAR defense rank 22 (below average for RBs). XGB overly pessimistic historically. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14.0 pts (within MODERATE range 7-20).

Context: O/U: 45.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 59% | BOOM: 17%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	ATL	15.2	14.0	8.1	-7.1
14	NO	16.4	16.0	16.1	-0.3
13	ARI	11.8	12.0	16.1	+4.3
12	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	NE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	NO	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	PHI	17.5	-	25.5	+8.0
3	NYJ	17.9	-	13.9	-4.0
2	HOU	15.9	-	18.1	+2.2
1	ATL	17.3	-	14.5	-2.8

Trending up: 13.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs KC)

Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 14% BOOM / 61% MODERATE. XGB: 16% BOOM / 37% BUST. ELITE matchup vs KC (rank 6 - 6th most pts allowed to RBs). BUT low game total (37.5) limits opportunities. Conflicting signals - great matchup, bad environment. Mode: MODERATE (matchup upside capped by low total). Projection: 10.0 pts (within MODERATE range 5-14).

Context: O/U: 37.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 37% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	SF	10.0	6.0	5.6	-4.4
14	CLE	8.6	8.0	6.7	-1.9
13	JAX	9.9	8.0	8.4	-1.5
12	SEA	9.6	-	6.5	-3.1
11	HOU	9.0	-	8.4	-0.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	LAC	9.5	-	9.2	-0.3
8	IND	9.5	-	17.2	+7.7
7	NE	7.8	-	7.0	-0.8
6	LV	5.6	-	9.0	+3.4
5	ARI	5.4	-	1.4	-4.0
4	HOU	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

5-game streak of missing projections
Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs DAL)

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 25% BOOM / 43% MODERATE. XGB: 9% BOOM / 59% BUST. Highest game total (49.5) but DAL defense rank 25 (tough). Game script favors passing but dome environment helps. Mode: MODERATE (high floor). Projection: 13.0 pts (within MODERATE range 7-17).

Context: O/U: 49.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 59% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	KC	11.7	10.0	7.5	-4.2
14	PHI	12.1	8.0	14.7	+2.6
13	LV	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
12	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	PIT	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	MIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	MIA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	WSH	18.6	-	13.0	-5.6
4	NYG	16.7	-	27.5	+10.8
3	DEN	12.2	-	24.9	+12.7
2	LV	15.7	-	3.5	-12.2
1	KC	14.7	-	8.1	-6.6

Trending up: 7.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.42)
Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Devin Singletary (NYG vs MIN)

Projections: ESPN 7.5 | LLM 4.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 18% BOOM / 61% BUST. XGB: 10% BOOM / 58% BUST. Both models agree on bust risk. MIN defense rank 17 (average), dome environment helps. Limited snap share and touches hurt floor. Mode: BUST. Projection: 4.0 pts (within BUST range 0-8).

Context: O/U: 43.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	WSH	10.8	6.0	2.4	-8.4
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NE	6.3	-	19.2	+12.9
12	DET	9.9	-	4.7	-5.2
11	GB	9.6	-	17.7	+8.1
10	CHI	9.7	-	10.3	+0.6
9	SF	5.5	-	7.1	+1.6
8	PHI	1.2	-	3.8	+2.6
7	DEN	0.8	-	0.2	-0.6
6	PHI	1.0	-	1.0	+0.0
5	NO	6.0	-	3.4	-2.6
4	LAC	7.4	-	2.8	-4.6
3	KC	1.1	-	1.1	+0.0
2	DAL	3.2	-	1.0	-2.2
1	WSH	3.5	-	0.9	-2.6

Trending down: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.21)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Isiah Pacheco (KC vs TEN)

Projections: ESPN 9.1 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 3% BOOM / 70% BUST. XGB: 12% BOOM / 60% BUST. Both models agree on bust. Low game total (37.5), TEN defense rank 26 (solid vs RBs). Committee usage limits upside. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range 0-11).

Context: O/U: 37.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	7.2	-	2.1	-5.1
14	HOU	8.3	-	3.0	-5.3
13	DAL	9.7	-	5.3	-4.4
12	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	WSH	11.4	-	5.8	-5.6
7	LV	11.5	-	12.4	+0.9
6	DET	8.9	-	6.1	-2.8
5	JAX	7.7	-	8.6	+0.9
4	BAL	9.2	-	12.8	+3.6
3	NYG	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
2	PHI	10.9	-	3.9	-7.0
1	LAC	12.8	-	4.8	-8.0

3-game streak of missing projections
Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 19.9 | LLM 23.6 (BOOM)

Reasoning: GAME COMPLETED - Actual score: 23.6 pts (BOOM). TNF performance exceeded ESPN projection of 19.9.

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	IND	20.6	22.0	18.3	-2.3
14	ATL	20.9	22.0	28.1	+7.2
13	MIN	21.9	24.0	4.3	-17.6
12	TEN	21.3	-	37.1	+15.8
11	LAR	23.0	-	20.6	-2.4
10	ARI	22.0	-	20.3	-1.7
9	WSH	24.5	-	22.0	-2.5
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	HOU	20.0	-	26.3	+6.3
6	JAX	17.9	-	30.2	+12.3
5	TB	15.9	-	27.2	+11.3
4	ARI	16.4	-	13.0	-3.4
3	NO	15.5	-	20.6	+5.1
2	PIT	14.4	-	18.3	+3.9
1	SF	14.7	-	19.4	+4.7

Averaging 20.4 pts vs 17.9 projected (+14%)
Trending down: 16.9 avg (last 3) vs 26.0 (prior 3)
Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs TB)

Projections: ESPN 13.1 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 14% BOOM / 49% BUST / 37% MODERATE. XGB: 17% BOOM / 22% BUST. Practicing Thursday (ankle/foot). ATL defense rank 26. Good game total (48.5). May see increased targets if MHJ limited. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 13.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-19).

Context: O/U: 48.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	NO	13.2	11.0	4.5	-8.7
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	LAR	13.2	13.0	11.3	-1.9
12	SF	16.3	-	11.5	-4.8
11	ATL	13.5	-	33.0	+19.5
10	NO	12.2	-	11.0	-1.2
9	GB	12.9	-	8.6	-4.3
8	BUF	13.4	-	16.9	+3.5
7	NYJ	12.5	-	6.3	-6.2
6	DAL	14.6	-	17.9	+3.3
5	MIA	14.2	-	13.3	-0.9
4	NE	14.2	-	10.2	-4.0
3	ATL	13.2	-	7.8	-5.4
2	ARI	13.5	-	16.0	+2.5
1	JAX	13.9	-	11.8	-2.1

Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs ATL)

Projections: ESPN 14.2 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM / 43% MODERATE. XGB: 42% BOOM / 23% BUST. Practicing 2 days but "Michael Wilson leading individual drills" - snap count concern. ATL defense rank 26 (tough). Hampton Rule: dont set 0 if practicing. Mode: MODERATE (limited snaps expected). Projection: 12.0 pts (within MODERATE range 7-17).

Context: O/U: 48.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	HOU	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
14	LAR	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	TB	13.7	14.0	12.9	-0.8
12	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	SEA	13.3	-	14.3	+1.0
9	DAL	13.3	-	22.6	+9.3
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	12.5	-	7.8	-4.7
6	IND	11.9	-	5.2	-6.7
5	TEN	12.8	-	13.8	+1.0
4	SEA	11.3	-	18.6	+7.3
3	SF	12.7	-	7.4	-5.3
2	CAR	14.0	-	4.7	-9.3
1	NO	13.9	-	18.1	+4.2

Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs TEN)

Projections: ESPN 17.8 | LLM 5.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 39% BOOM / 37% BUST. XGB: 24% BOOM / 31% BUST. CONCUSSION PROTOCOL - not practicing Wed/Thu. TEN defense rank 29 (3rd toughest vs WR). Low game total (37.5). Per Reddit: "Rashee Rice (concussion) is not practicing on Thursday" [r/fantasyfootball]. HIGH RISK - may be OUT. IF ACTIVE: significantly limited effectiveness expected. Mode: BUST. Projection: 5.0 pts (within BUST range, reflecting injury risk). Monitor Friday report.

Context: O/U: 37.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%

XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 31% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	17.2	11.0	12.1	-5.1
14	HOU	17.1	17.0	7.4	-9.7
13	DAL	18.1	18.4	29.4	+11.3
12	IND	17.6	-	24.1	+6.5
11	DEN	16.4	-	9.8	-6.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	18.4	-	18.6	+0.2
8	WSH	17.2	-	25.5	+8.2
7	LV	13.7	-	23.2	+9.5
6	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	BAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	LAC	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs PIT)

Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 22.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 29% BOOM / 44% MODERATE. XGB: 12% BOOM / 43% BUST. LINEUP LOCK per ESPN. Highest game total (52.5) in favorable passing environment. PIT defense rank 21 (below average). MC shows boom upside, XGB overly conservative historically. Detroit passing attack elite. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 22.0 pts (within BOOM range 17-30).

Context: O/U: 52.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAR	13.9	18.0	26.4	+12.5
14	DAL	13.8	17.3	17.3	+3.5
13	GB	11.8	15.1	26.9	+15.1
12	NYG	12.9	-	0.0	-12.9
11	PHI	12.6	-	19.7	+7.1
10	WSH	12.1	-	23.9	+11.8
9	MIN	11.0	-	16.6	+5.6
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	TB	13.2	-	0.0	-13.2
6	KC	10.7	-	18.6	+7.9
5	CIN	11.8	-	2.0	-9.8
4	CLE	10.7	-	5.7	-5.0
3	BAL	12.9	-	6.3	-6.6
2	CHI	13.0	-	18.8	+5.8
1	GB	12.9	-	6.6	-6.3

3-game streak of beating projections
Trending up: 23.5 avg (last 3) vs 14.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.79)
Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Jayden Reed (GB vs CHI)

Projections: ESPN 11.2 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 10% BOOM / 66% MODERATE. XGB: 13% BOOM / 52% BUST. CONFLICTING: Elite matchup (CHI rank 30 vs WR) BUT snow game (100% precip). Bears WRs Odunze/Burden OUT - Packers may throw to stay ahead. Snow typically hurts passing, but elite matchup too good. Mode: MODERATE (weather-adjusted from potential boom). Projection: 13.0 pts (within MODERATE range 7-20).

Context: O/U: 46.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 23% | MODERATE: 66% | BOOM: 10%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	DEN	10.0	-	10.5	+0.5
14	CHI	7.7	-	9.3	+1.6
13	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
12	MIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	CAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	PIT	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	ARI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	CIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	DAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	CLE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	WSH	11.3	-	0.0	-11.3
1	DET	11.2	-	13.5	+2.3

Averaging 2.2 pts vs 2.7 projected (-17%)
Trending up: 6.6 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 2.10)
Season high: 13.5 pts in Week 1

Juwan Johnson (NO vs NYJ)

Projections: ESPN 9.1 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 30% BOOM / 45% MODERATE. XGB: 18% BOOM / 57% BUST. Wind game at MetLife (12mph sustained, 23mph gusts). NYJ defense rank 16 (average vs TE). Wind affects deep balls but TE targets often intermediate. Also has 250k bonus for 8 catches - motivation. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts (within MODERATE range 5-13).

Context: O/U: 40.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 57% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	CAR	9.7	10.0	7.0	-2.7
14	TB	9.7	10.0	7.8	-1.9
13	MIA	8.7	11.0	8.9	+0.2
12	ATL	9.3	-	10.6	+1.3
11	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	CAR	8.9	-	19.2	+10.2
9	LAR	8.3	-	12.1	+3.8
8	TB	9.6	-	10.3	+0.7
7	CHI	7.5	-	12.9	+5.4
6	NE	7.9	-	1.5	-6.4
5	NYG	7.9	-	3.7	-4.2
4	BUF	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
3	SEA	10.6	-	11.1	+0.5
2	SF	9.1	-	15.9	+6.8
1	ARI	7.3	-	15.6	+8.3

Averaging 9.5 pts vs 8.4 projected (+13%)
Trending down: 7.9 avg (last 3) vs 9.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs CHI

Projections: ESPN 17.4 | LLM 15.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21%

Notes: MC: 21% BOOM / 53% MODERATE. XGB: 27% BOOM / 21% BUST. SNOW GAME (100% precip, 28F, 10mph wind). Weather suppresses passing upside significantly. Despite decent game total (46.5), snow conditions favor running game. Mode: MODERATE (weather-adjusted down). Projection: 15.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-24).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	DEN	14.8	17.0	13.9	-0.9
14	CHI	17.6	18.0	19.3	+1.6
13	DET	15.7	18.2	25.8	+10.0
12	MIN	17.4	-	7.1	-10.4
11	NYG	16.3	-	17.7	+1.3
10	PHI	17.0	-	7.8	-9.1
9	CAR	18.1	-	9.0	-9.1
8	PIT	17.1	-	28.3	+11.2
7	ARI	17.4	-	13.4	-4.0
6	CIN	19.3	-	15.0	-4.4
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	DAL	18.6	-	26.3	+7.7
3	CLE	16.0	-	11.1	-4.9
2	WSH	17.6	-	20.9	+3.3
1	DET	14.9	-	15.9	+1.0

Trending up: 19.7 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.51)
Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs ATL

Projections: ESPN 14.2 | LLM 12.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 23%

Notes: MC: 27% BOOM / 43% MODERATE. XGB: 42% BOOM / 23% BUST. Practicing 2 days but "Michael Wilson leading individual drills" - snap count concern. ATL defense rank 26 (tough). Hampton Rule: dont set 0 if practicing. Mode: MODERATE (limited snaps expected). Projection: 12.0 pts (within MODERATE range 7-17).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	HOU	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
14	LAR	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	TB	13.7	14.0	12.9	-0.8
12	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	SEA	13.3	-	14.3	+1.0
9	DAL	13.3	-	22.6	+9.3
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	12.5	-	7.8	-4.7
6	IND	11.9	-	5.2	-6.7
5	TEN	12.8	-	13.8	+1.0
4	SEA	11.3	-	18.6	+7.3
3	SF	12.7	-	7.4	-5.3
2	CAR	14.0	-	4.7	-9.3
1	NO	13.9	-	18.1	+4.2

Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (WR) - KC vs TEN

Projections: ESPN 17.8 | LLM 5.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%

XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 31%

Notes: MC: 39% BOOM / 37% BUST. XGB: 24% BOOM / 31% BUST. CONCUSSION PROTOCOL - not practicing Wed/Thu. TEN defense rank 29 (3rd toughest vs WR). Low game total (37.5). Per Reddit: "Rashee Rice (concussion) is not practicing on Thursday" [r/fantasyfootball]. HIGH RISK - may be OUT. IF ACTIVE: significantly limited effectiveness expected. Mode: BUST. Projection: 5.0 pts (within BUST range, reflecting injury risk). Monitor Friday report.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	17.2	11.0	12.1	-5.1
14	HOU	17.1	17.0	7.4	-9.7
13	DAL	18.1	18.4	29.4	+11.3
12	IND	17.6	-	24.1	+6.5
11	DEN	16.4	-	9.8	-6.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	18.4	-	18.6	+0.2
8	WSH	17.2	-	25.5	+8.2
7	LV	13.7	-	23.2	+9.5
6	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	BAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	LAC	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Tyjae Spears (RB) - TEN vs KC

Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 10.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 37%

Notes: MC: 14% BOOM / 61% MODERATE. XGB: 16% BOOM / 37% BUST. ELITE matchup vs KC (rank 6 - 6th most pts allowed to RBs). BUT low game total (37.5) limits opportunities. Conflicting signals - great matchup, bad environment. Mode: MODERATE (matchup upside capped by low total). Projection: 10.0 pts (within MODERATE range 5-14).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	SF	10.0	6.0	5.6	-4.4
14	CLE	8.6	8.0	6.7	-1.9
13	JAX	9.9	8.0	8.4	-1.5
12	SEA	9.6	-	6.5	-3.1
11	HOU	9.0	-	8.4	-0.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	LAC	9.5	-	9.2	-0.3
8	IND	9.5	-	17.2	+7.7
7	NE	7.8	-	7.0	-0.8
6	LV	5.6	-	9.0	+3.4
5	ARI	5.4	-	1.4	-4.0
4	HOU	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

5-game streak of missing projections
Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Rams D/ST (D/ST) - LAR vs SEA

Projections: ESPN 5.7 | LLM 4.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 22%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 59%

Notes: MC: 22% BOOM / 40% BUST. XGB: 11% BOOM / 59% BUST. Already played TNF - JSN dropped 23.6 on them. Seattle offense efficient. Mode: BUST. Projection: 4.0 pts (actual from game).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	DET	4.2	4.0	-1.0	-5.2
14	ARI	6.9	9.0	6.0	-0.9
13	CAR	7.5	10.0	1.0	-6.5
12	TB	5.7	-	20.0	+14.3
11	SEA	5.4	-	5.0	-0.4
10	SF	6.4	-	5.0	-1.4
9	NO	8.2	-	10.0	+1.8
7	JAX	6.7	-	9.0	+2.3
6	BAL	6.2	-	16.0	+9.8
5	SF	7.0	-	-2.0	-9.0
4	IND	5.7	-	6.0	+0.3
3	PHI	5.2	-	7.0	+1.8
2	TEN	7.4	-	9.0	+1.6
1	HOU	5.6	-	12.0	+6.4

3-game streak of missing projections
Averaging 7.4 pts vs 6.3 projected (+17%)
Trending down: 2.0 avg (last 3) vs 10.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
Season high: 20.0 pts in Week 12

Devin Singletary (RB) - NYG vs MIN

Projections: ESPN 7.5 | LLM 4.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 58%

Notes: MC: 18% BOOM / 61% BUST. XGB: 10% BOOM / 58% BUST. Both models agree on bust risk. MIN defense rank 17 (average), dome environment helps. Limited snap share and touches hurt floor. Mode: BUST. Projection: 4.0 pts (within BUST range 0-8).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	WSH	10.8	6.0	2.4	-8.4
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NE	6.3	-	19.2	+12.9
12	DET	9.9	-	4.7	-5.2
11	GB	9.6	-	17.7	+8.1
10	CHI	9.7	-	10.3	+0.6
9	SF	5.5	-	7.1	+1.6
8	PHI	1.2	-	3.8	+2.6
7	DEN	0.8	-	0.2	-0.6
6	PHI	1.0	-	1.0	+0.0
5	NO	6.0	-	3.4	-2.6
4	LAC	7.4	-	2.8	-4.6
3	KC	1.1	-	1.1	+0.0
2	DAL	3.2	-	1.0	-2.2
1	WSH	3.5	-	0.9	-2.6

Trending down: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.21)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Isiah Pacheco (RB) - KC vs TEN

Projections: ESPN 9.1 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 3% BOOM / 70% BUST. XGB: 12% BOOM / 60% BUST. Both models agree on bust. Low game total (37.5), TEN defense rank 26 (solid vs RBs). Committee usage limits upside. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range 0-11).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	7.2	-	2.1	-5.1
14	HOU	8.3	-	3.0	-5.3
13	DAL	9.7	-	5.3	-4.4
12	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	WSH	11.4	-	5.8	-5.6
7	LV	11.5	-	12.4	+0.9
6	DET	8.9	-	6.1	-2.8
5	JAX	7.7	-	8.6	+0.9
4	BAL	9.2	-	12.8	+3.6
3	NYG	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
2	PHI	10.9	-	3.9	-7.0
1	LAC	12.8	-	4.8	-8.0

3-game streak of missing projections
Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jayden Reed (WR) - GB vs CHI

Projections: ESPN 11.2 | LLM 13.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 23% | MODERATE: 66% | BOOM: 10%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52%

Notes: MC: 10% BOOM / 66% MODERATE. XGB: 13% BOOM / 52% BUST. CONFLICTING: Elite matchup (CHI rank 30 vs WR) BUT snow game (100% precip). Bears WRs Odunze/Burden OUT - Packers may throw to stay ahead. Snow typically hurts passing, but elite matchup too good. Mode: MODERATE (weather-adjusted from potential boom). Projection: 13.0 pts (within MODERATE range 7-20).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	DEN	10.0	-	10.5	+0.5
14	CHI	7.7	-	9.3	+1.6
13	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
12	MIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	CAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	PIT	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	ARI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	CIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	DAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	CLE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	WSH	11.3	-	0.0	-11.3
1	DET	11.2	-	13.5	+2.3

Averaging 2.2 pts vs 2.7 projected (-17%)
Trending up: 6.6 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 2.10)
Season high: 13.5 pts in Week 1

High Threat Players (>35% Boom)

Jaguars D/ST (D/ST): 48% boom probability

Opponent Starter Analysis

Player	Pos	Team	ESPN	LLM	Boom%	Mod%	Bust%	Threat
Jaguars D/ST	D/ST	JAX	5.6	9.2	48%	32%	20%	HIGH
DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	13.5	12.7	30%	50%	20%	MEDIUM
Baker Mayfield	QB	TB	16.6	17.0	18%	59%	23%	LOW
Trey McBride	TE	ARI	16.8	17.2	17%	63%	20%	LOW
Harrison Butker	K	KC	8.0	8.3	16%	26%	57%	LOW
Michael Carter	RB	ARI	11.0	8.8	16%	45%	39%	LOW
Rico Dowdle	RB	CAR	15.2	13.2	14%	59%	27%	LOW
Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	13.4	12.6	8%	36%	56%	LOW
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	23.8	20.4	7%	23%	70%	LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

Jaguars D/ST: MC (BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 42%) | XGB (Boom 48% | Bust 20%)

DK Metcalf: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 21%) | XGB (Boom 30% | Bust 20%)

Baker Mayfield: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 52% | BOOM: 14%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 23%)

Trey McBride: MC (BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 26%) | XGB (Boom 17% | Bust 20%)

Harrison Butker: MC (BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 46% | BOOM: 25%) | XGB (Boom 16% | Bust 57%)

Michael Carter: MC (BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 50% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 16% | Bust 39%)

Rico Dowdle: MC (BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 19%) | XGB (Boom 14% | Bust 27%)

Michael Wilson: MC (BUST: 55% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 16%) | XGB (Boom 8% | Bust 56%)

Jahmyr Gibbs: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 24%) | XGB (Boom 7% | Bust 70%)

Add/Drop Recommendations

Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster

🎯 Priority Pickups (Injury/Opportunity Based)

Semi-finals roster optimization - maximize ceiling for championship week positioning

#1 Hunter Henry (TE, NE)

vs vs BAL (Average (BAL 16th vs TE))

ESPN: 10.4 Trend: NEUTRAL DROP: Juwan Johnson (if seeking upgrade)

Most consistent TE on waivers. Rolling avg (10.5) above season avg (9.9). Better floor than Juwan Johnson who faces wind at MetLife. Week 17: vs BUF (17th vs TE) - solid playoff matchup.

Week 17: vs BUF - 17th vs TE, steady option

#2 49ers D/ST (D/ST, SF)

vs vs IND (Good (IND turnover-prone))

ESPN: 4.7 Trend: HOT (+208%) DROP: Rams D/ST

SCORCHING HOT trend - rolling avg 11.1 vs season avg 3.6 (208% improvement). Week 17 vs DET is tough but IND matchup this week is solid. Drop Rams D/ST who just gave up 23.6 to JSN.

Week 17: vs DET - tough but they are peaking at right time

#3 Rashid Shaheed (WR, SEA)

vs vs LAR (Average (LAR 24th vs WR))

ESPN: 9.7 Trend: NEUTRAL DROP: Conditional - bench depth

Already played TNF - check actual score. Deep threat with big-play upside. Neutral trend shows consistency. Could be WR insurance if Rashee Rice ruled OUT.

Week 17: Check Week 17 matchup if picking up

#4 Evan McPherson (K, CIN)

vs vs MIA (Good (CIN offense productive))

ESPN: 8.0 Trend: HOT (+55%) DROP: None needed (if have K spot)

HOT STREAK - rolling 12.7 vs season 8.2. CIN offense moving ball. Could upgrade from Jason Myers (2.0 TNF). Week 17 at DEN - dome game, reliable.

Week 17: at DEN - dome game, high floor

⚠️ Players to Avoid

Keenan Allen (WR)

COLD trend - rolling 7.1 vs season 11.4 (-38%). Only add if desperate for WR depth.

Oronde Gadsden II (TE)

COLD trend - rolling 5.9 vs season 9.4 (-37%). Inconsistent target share.

Quentin Johnston (WR)

COLD trend - rolling 6.4 vs season 11.3 (-43%). Questionable status. Boom/bust profile unreliable for playoffs.

Emanuel Wilson (RB)

COLD trend - rolling 3.4 vs season 5.5. Snow game at CHI. Josh Jacobs handcuff only.

Devin Neal (RB)

IR designation - not playing Week 16. Was HOT trend but now injured.

Jayden Daniels (QB)

OUT - not playing Week 16.

Kyler Murray (QB)

INJURY_RESERVE - not playing.

📋 Quick Summary

ADD Hunter Henry, DROP Juwan Johnson - TE upgrade with better floor
ADD 49ers D/ST, DROP Rams D/ST - HOT trend vs busted Rams
MONITOR Rashee Rice - if OUT Friday, add Hollywood Brown or Xavier Worthy
STASH Evan McPherson if K streaming

MC-Based Analysis (Auto-Generated)

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (8): Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (36 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Isiah Pacheco (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Jayden Reed (Elite ceiling (34 pts)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Rashee Rice (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Rams D/ST (Elite ceiling (25 pts))

ADD Chiefs D/ST D/ST,

Boom%53%

Bust%18%

EV7.6

BUST: 26% (-4-8) MODERATE: 44% (0-12) BOOM: 30% (6-21)

ADD Chargers D/ST D/ST,

Boom%52%

Bust%17%

EV9.1

BUST: 24% (-3-9) MODERATE: 44% (2-14) BOOM: 32% (7-22)

ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,

Boom%47%

Bust%20%

EV12.1

BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 39% (8-20) BOOM: 14% (13-28)

ADD Jayden Daniels QB,

Boom%34%

Bust%30%

EV0.0

OUT: 100% (0-0)

ADD Zach Ertz TE,

Boom%28%

Bust%24%

EV10.2

BUST: 17% (-0-6) MODERATE: 50% (4-13) BOOM: 34% (11-23)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

Player	Pos	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%	Own%
Chiefs D/ST	D/ST	7.6	53%	18%	0.0%
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	9.1	52%	17%	0.0%
J.K. Dobbins	RB	12.1	47%	20%	0.0%
Jayden Daniels	QB	0.0	34%	30%	0.0%
Zach Ertz	TE	10.2	28%	24%	0.0%
Evan Engram	TE	7.9	27%	24%	0.0%
Ka'imi Fairbairn	K	10.7	26%	26%	0.0%
Commanders D/ST	D/ST	7.8	24%	38%	0.0%
Isiah Pacheco	RB	8.0	22%	28%	0.0%
Patriots D/ST	D/ST	8.8	22%	43%	0.0%
Bears D/ST	D/ST	8.5	20%	30%	0.0%
Matt Prater	K	0.0	19%	54%	0.0%
Cooper Kupp	WR	10.0	18%	48%	0.0%
Devin Neal	RB	9.6	18%	45%	0.0%
Eddy Pineiro	K	10.0	17%	45%	0.0%

QB Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Jayden Daniels	0.0	OUT:100%	34%	30%
Justin Fields	16.4	BUST:40%, MODERATE:31%, BOOM:30%	14%	50%
Sam Darnold	15.5	BUST:38%, MODERATE:37%, BOOM:24%	13%	44%
Kyler Murray	16.8	BUST:17%, MODERATE:58%, BOOM:25%	11%	54%

RB Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
J.K. Dobbins	12.1	BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14%	47%	20%
Isiah Pacheco	8.0	BUST:68%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:3%	22%	28%
Devin Neal	9.6	BUST:35%, MODERATE:46%, BOOM:19%	18%	45%
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	7.4	BUST:41%, MODERATE:56%, BOOM:2%	16%	45%
Trey Benson	8.7	BUST:33%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24%	12%	57%
Emanuel Wilson	7.7	BUST:56%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:10%	9%	60%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	9.4	BUST:54%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:12%	8%	61%

WR Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Cooper Kupp	10.0	BUST:46%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:12%	18%	48%
Quentin Johnston	12.0	BUST:29%, MODERATE:54%, BOOM:18%	15%	39%
Garrett Wilson	14.6	BUST:38%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:22%	15%	48%
Rashid Shaheed	10.2	BUST:28%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:30%	14%	53%
Keenan Allen	11.6	BUST:69%, MODERATE:22%, BOOM:9%	9%	56%

TE Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Zach Ertz	10.2	BUST:17%, MODERATE:50%, BOOM:34%	28%	24%
Evan Engram	7.9	BUST:34%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:20%	27%	24%
Hunter Henry	9.8	BUST:51%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12%	8%	62%
Oronde Gadsden II	9.3	BUST:39%, MODERATE:47%, BOOM:14%	8%	58%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

Player	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%
Ka'imi Fairbairn	10.7	26%	26%
Matt Prater	0.0	19%	54%
Eddy Pineiro	10.0	17%	45%

D/ST Streamers

Player	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%
Chiefs D/ST	7.6	53%	18%
Chargers D/ST	9.1	52%	17%
Commanders D/ST	7.8	24%	38%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 16 | Generated: 2025-12-19 00:05

Matchup Summary

65.0%

Win Probability

+18.0

Expected Margin

129.6

My Team (LLM Proj)

110.0

Opponent (Proj)

32.9

Margin Std Dev

120.6

My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -41.6 pts | Median: +1.4 pts | Ceiling: +42.6 pts

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Jacoby Brissett	QB	MED	21.0	4.6-27.9	↑15+: 66% \| ↓5-: 11%
Bucky Irving	RB	HIGH	14.0	5.1-23.7	↑15+: 40% \| ↓5-: 10%
Omarion Hampton	RB	HIGH	13.0	3.7-24.3	↑15+: 34% \| ↓5-: 18%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	MED	23.6	6.4-30.3	↑15+: 62% \| ↓5-: 4%
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	HIGH	13.0	4.9-25.4	↑15+: 27% \| ↓5-: 11%
Jameson Williams	WR	HIGH	22.0	4.1-26.4	↑15+: 51% \| ↓5-: 14%
Juwan Johnson	TE	HIGH	9.0	2.9-16.4	↑15+: 15% \| ↓5-: 23%
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	12.0	0.9-18.0	↑15+: 19% \| ↓5-: 27%
Jason Myers	K	MED	2.0	5.4-18.9	↑15+: 25% \| ↓5-: 7%

Bench

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Jordan Love	QB	MED	15.0	6.6-27.4	↑15+: 53% \| ↓5-: 5%
Tyjae Spears	RB	HIGH	10.0	2.7-18.2	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 29%
Devin Singletary	RB	HIGH	4.0	0.6-18.0	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 54%
Isiah Pacheco	RB	HIGH	6.0	2.2-15.1	↑15+: 10% \| ↓5-: 43%
Rashee Rice	WR	MED	5.0	6.6-27.7	↑15+: 52% \| ↓5-: 3%
Jayden Reed	WR	HIGH	13.0	3.9-21.7	↑15+: 23% \| ↓5-: 15%
Rams D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	4.0	1.1-18.7	↑15+: 20% \| ↓5-: 34%

IR

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust	Distribution
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	HIGH	12.0	3.7-21.9	↑15+: 32% \| ↓5-: 17%

Opponent

Starters

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Baker Mayfield	QB	MED	17.1	6.3-27.8	↑15+: 58% \| ↓5-: 5%
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	HIGH	20.6	7.5-39.5	↑15+: 61% \| ↓5-: 1%
Rico Dowdle	RB	HIGH	13.1	3.3-27.1	↑15+: 30% \| ↓5-: 17%
Michael Carter	RB	HIGH	8.7	1.2-17.2	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 32%
DK Metcalf	WR	HIGH	12.7	4.9-22.5	↑15+: 34% \| ↓5-: 11%
Michael Wilson	WR	HIGH	12.5	3.3-30.0	↑15+: 30% \| ↓5-: 26%
Trey McBride	TE	MED	17.2	8.3-29.5	↑15+: 54% \| ↓5-: 0%
Jaguars D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	9.1	0.5-17.8	↑15+: 18% \| ↓5-: 30%
Harrison Butker	K	HIGH	8.3	2.9-14.5	↑15+: 9% \| ↓5-: 26%

Bench

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Aaron Rodgers	QB	HIGH	14.8	5.8-25.0	↑15+: 44% \| ↓5-: 6%
Kareem Hunt	RB	HIGH	10.3	2.4-20.1	↑15+: 25% \| ↓5-: 27%
Rome Odunze	WR	LOW	0.0	0.0-0.0	↑15+: 0% \| ↓5-: 100%
Jordan Addison	WR	HIGH	12.2	5.4-21.6	↑15+: 27% \| ↓5-: 7%
Romeo Doubs	WR	HIGH	10.3	2.6-20.2	↑15+: 22% \| ↓5-: 25%
Darren Waller	TE	HIGH	12.2	3.0-23.4	↑15+: 40% \| ↓5-: 27%
Colby Parkinson	TE	HIGH	9.3	2.3-19.0	↑15+: 15% \| ↓5-: 31%

Scenario Details

Player	Position	BOOM	MODERATE	BUST	EV
Bucky Irving	RB	17% @ 24.3	59% @ 14.2	25% @ 5.9	13.9
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	27% @ 28.7	44% @ 18.4	29% @ 7.6	18.1
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	14% @ 27.6	37% @ 13.7	49% @ 7.0	12.4
Omarion Hampton	RB	25% @ 23.1	43% @ 12.0	32% @ 5.1	12.6
Jason Myers	K	25% @ 18.3	44% @ 11.9	31% @ 6.5	11.8
Juwan Johnson	TE	30% @ 14.9	45% @ 8.8	25% @ 3.7	9.4
Jameson Williams	WR	29% @ 24.4	44% @ 15.7	28% @ 5.4	15.3
Jacoby Brissett	QB	74% @ 21.4	2% @ 14.7	23% @ 5.9	17.6
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	36% @ 15.0	42% @ 8.4	22% @ 2.8	9.5

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

Player	Pos	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Boom%	Mod%	Bust%
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	4.2	12.0	BOOM	55.0%	29.8%	15.2%
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	14.2	12.0	MODERATE	42.1%	35.4%	22.6%
Jordan Love	QB	17.4	15.0	MODERATE	26.7%	52.3%	20.9%
Rashee Rice	WR	17.8	5.0	BUST	23.7%	45.1%	31.3%
Jason Myers	K	8.1	2.0	BUST	23.3%	55.1%	21.6%
Juwan Johnson	TE	9.1	9.0	MODERATE	17.9%	25.6%	56.6%
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	13.1	13.0	MODERATE	16.9%	61.6%	21.5%
Tyjae Spears	RB	8.7	10.0	MODERATE	16.1%	46.9%	37.0%
Jacoby Brissett	QB	18.8	21.0	BOOM	13.7%	50.2%	36.1%
Bucky Irving	RB	15.2	14.0	MODERATE	12.9%	38.9%	48.2%
Jayden Reed	WR	11.2	13.0	MODERATE	12.9%	35.6%	51.5%
Jameson Williams	WR	15.9	22.0	BOOM	12.3%	44.4%	43.4%
Isiah Pacheco	RB	9.1	6.0	BUST	11.9%	28.2%	59.9%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	19.9	23.6	BOOM	11.4%	65.9%	22.7%
Rams D/ST	D/ST	5.7	4.0	BUST	10.8%	30.2%	59.0%
Devin Singletary	RB	7.5	4.0	BUST	9.8%	31.8%	58.4%
Omarion Hampton	RB	13.2	13.0	MODERATE	8.7%	32.5%	58.8%

League Standings

Week 16 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank	Team	Record	PF (Total)	PA (Total)	+/-	This Week	Streak	Playoff %
1	Kitty's Piggy Skins	10-5	1861.3	1676.5	+184.8	0.0 vs 0.0	L1	100.0%
2	4th and pinches	10-5	1771.1	1791.0	-19.9	0.0 vs 25.6	W2	100.0%
3	Valued Customers ←	9-6	1848.4	1558.6	+289.8	25.6 vs 0.0	W5	100.0%
4	Ryan's Rowdy Team	8-7	1759.9	1725.0	+35.0	0.0 vs 0.0	W1	100.0%
5	Wookie of the Year	8-7	1731.3	1731.9	-0.6	25.4 vs 0.0	L1	0.0%
6	Meat Pistols	8-7	1515.0	1690.3	-175.3	0.0 vs 25.4	L2	0.0%
7	Torta Pounders Football Club	7-8	1730.5	1732.7	-2.1	0.0 vs 58.0	L2	0.0%
8	Moms rules	7-8	1722.9	1778.5	-55.6	58.0 vs 0.0	W1	0.0%
9	Smooth Roosters	7-8	1664.4	1677.8	-13.4	0.0 vs 30.9	W3	0.0%
10	The Warsaw Pact	6-9	1684.4	1752.0	-67.6	30.9 vs 0.0	W2	0.0%
11	Chupi and the End Zone Bandits	6-9	1584.0	1689.6	-105.6	0.0 vs 0.0	L5	0.0%
12	Auto DraftKings	4-11	1697.9	1767.4	-69.5	0.0 vs 0.0	L4	0.0%

Week 16 Matchups

Away Team	Score		Score	Home Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins	0.0	@	0.0	Ryan's Rowdy Team
4th and pinches	0.0	@	25.6	Valued Customers
Wookie of the Year	25.4	@	0.0	Meat Pistols
Torta Pounders Football Club	0.0	@	58.0	Moms rules
Smooth Roosters	0.0	@	30.9	The Warsaw Pact
Chupi and the End Zone Bandits	0.0	@	0.0	Auto DraftKings

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Cumulative Points

Week 16 Research Analysis - Semi-Finals

Thursday Night Football Results (SEA vs LAR)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 23.6 pts - BOOM performance despite wind concerns (40 mph gusts early game)
Jason Myers: 2.0 pts - Game still in progress when fetched (kicker volatility noted)
Weather analyst Kevin Roth mentioned "the only thing I'm considering fading is kickers" due to wind - advice proved relevant

Key Injury Updates (Reddit + Web Sources)

CRITICAL - Rashee Rice (KC, WR): - "Rashee Rice (concussion) is not practicing on Thursday" r/fantasyfootball - Missed both Wednesday and Thursday practice - HIGH RISK for Week 16 - monitor Friday practice report closely - If OUT: Hollywood Brown/Xavier Worthy benefit

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI, WR): - "Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel) was seen practicing for the second straight day on Thursday" r/fantasyfootball - BUT: "Michael Wilson Leading Individual Drills Despite MHJ's Return" - concerning snap count signal - Hampton Rule: Don't assume full workload even if active - MODERATE RISK - likely plays but may be limited

Tetairoa McMillan (ARI, WR): - "Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan (ankle/foot) is practicing on Thursday" r/fantasyfootball - Day-to-day status earlier in week - Expected to play - monitoring workload

Bears WRs (affects Jayden Reed matchup): - "Bears WRs Rome Odunze (Foot) and Luther Burden III (Ankle) both ruled out for Saturday vs. Packers" r/fantasyfootball - Chicago's passing game severely limited - GB defense can key on Keenan Allen/DJ Moore - BOOSTS Jayden Reed - Packers may need to throw more if Bears can't sustain drives

Vegas-Implied Game Scripts

High-Scoring Games (Boom Environment): 1. DET @ PIT (52.5) - Jameson Williams in excellent game environment 2. LAC @ DAL (49.5) - Omarion Hampton benefits from high-total shootout 3. ARI @ ATL (48.5) - McBrisket stack (Brissett + targets) viable

Low-Scoring/Defensive Games: 1. KC @ TEN (37.5) - CONCERNING for Rashee Rice/Pacheco/Spears - Low total suggests defensive struggle, limited scoring opportunities

Weather Alerts: 1. GB @ CHI - SNOW GAME (100% precip, 28°F) - affects Jordan Love, Jayden Reed 2. NO @ NYJ - WIND GAME (12 mph sustained, 23 mph gusts) - affects Juwan Johnson

Reddit Community Sentiment

Positive Buzz: - Jacoby Brissett #5 in Vegas odds-based QB rankings (18.3 projected) - "McBrisket" (Brissett + McBride stack) trending - Jameson Williams listed as "lineup lock" per ESPN - Tyjae Spears faces KC's 6th-worst RB defense - elite opportunity

Negative/Cautionary: - Rashee Rice concussion protocol (high risk) - Marvin Harrison Jr. snap count concerns despite practice return - Low KC/TEN game total hurting all players in that game

Defense Matchup Analysis

ELITE MATCHUPS (Rank 1-10 = Most Points Allowed): - Tyjae Spears vs KC (rank 6) - KC allows 6th-most fantasy points to RBs - Jayden Reed vs CHI (rank 30) - CHI allows 4th-most to WRs

POOR MATCHUPS (Rank 25+ = Fewest Points Allowed): - Rashee Rice vs TEN (rank 29) - TEN allows 3rd-fewest to WRs - Omarion Hampton vs DAL (rank 25) - Below average - Marvin Harrison Jr. vs ATL (rank 26) - Below average

Final Confidence Tiers

Locked-In Starters: - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (already played - 23.6 pts locked) - Jameson Williams (lineup lock, highest game total) - Jacoby Brissett (Vegas #5 QB, high game total)

Solid Starters: - Bucky Irving (clear lead back, decent matchup) - Omarion Hampton (high game total offsets tough matchup) - Jason Myers (already playing)

Weather/Injury Risks: - Jordan Love (snow game, 100% precip) - Jayden Reed (snow game but ELITE matchup) - Rashee Rice (concussion protocol - Friday critical) - Marvin Harrison Jr. (snap count concerns)

Low Floor/Bench Candidates: - Juwan Johnson (wind game, average matchup) - Tyjae Spears (elite matchup but low game total) - Isiah Pacheco (low game total, committee) - Devin Singletary (limited usage)

Reddit Insights

Hot Topics

Thursday Night Game Thread (11,833 comments)
Davante Adams INACTIVE (512 upvotes)
Weather concerns for TNF (1,107 upvotes)
McBrisket brunch meme trending
Rashee Rice concussion concern

Positive Buzz: Jacoby Brissett, Jameson Williams, Tyjae Spears, Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Negative Buzz: Rashee Rice, Marvin Harrison Jr. (snap concerns)

Mixed Buzz: Jordan Love (snow game), Jayden Reed (snow but elite matchup)

Sources

Waiver Wire Notes

No waiver recommendations this week.

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

Crystal Society Debates

Multi-agent analysis for strategic decisions (Week 16)

Best two FA additions and who to drop for each

Round 1: Opening Arguments

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: Jason Myers, Bears D/ST | ADD: Ka'imi Fairbairn, Chargers D/ST

Playoffs require MAXIMUM CEILING plays. Fairbairn gives you a top-2 kicker floor with 50+ yard upside every week. Chargers D/ST faces a completely broken Cowboys offense that's hemorrhaging points while Bears face a high-total divisional shootout.

🔽 FLOOR HIGH

DROP: Bears D/ST, Marcus Mariota | ADD: Ka'imi Fairbairn, Tyler Allgeier

These moves prioritize proven weekly consistency over speculative upside. Fairbairn (K4, 11.5 PPG) gives elite insurance behind Myers, while Allgeier's 7.8 PPG floor strengthens RB depth. Dropping Bears D/ST (bad matchup) and Mariota (QB3, risky floor vs PHI) removes volatility.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: Rams D/ST, Marcus Mariota | ADD: Patriots D/ST, Chiefs D/ST

Rostering three QBs in the playoffs is a strategic error when only one starts. Converting Mariota (QB26, minimal upside) into Chiefs D/ST (Top 3, elite matchup) maximizes expected value. Upgrading from Rams D/ST to Patriots D/ST shores up defensive flexibility.

🔮 CONTRARIAN HIGH

DROP: Bears D/ST, Marcus Mariota | ADD: Chargers D/ST, Isiah Pacheco

The consensus is obsessed with 'keeping depth' and 'weekly flexibility,' but playoff fantasy is about CEILING. Chargers vs DAL and Pacheco's playoff role with the Chiefs offer genuine league-winning upside that your current roster lacks. Championship week demands aggression.

Fact Check

✅ MULTIPLE: "FLOOR: Myers is K1 - CORRECT (87 total pts, league" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "ALL: Bears D/ST 2.9 proj bad matchup vs GB - CORRE" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "SYNTHESIS: Mariota QB26 vs Eagles - CORRECT" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "CONTRARIAN: Chargers 52% XGB boom - CORRECT" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "ALL: Cowboys allow 30+ PPG - CORRECT" CORRECT

❌ CEILING: "Drop Myers for Fairbairn (K2)" FALSE (actual: Myers is K1 (87 pts) vs Fairbairn K4 (78 pts) - REJECTED. Never drop K1.)

❌ CONTRARIAN: "Chargers play Patriots Week 17" FALSE (actual: Chargers play TEXANS Week 17, not Patriots. Schedule error.)

Round 2: Rebuttals

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: Bears D/ST | ADD: Chargers D/ST

[Ack] Fact-check correct: Myers K1 (87 pts) > Fairbairn K4 (78 pts). Retracted. [Challenge SYNTHESIS] Patriots D/ST over Chargers is wrong - Chargers have superior matchup vs DAL [Concede] FLOOR correctly identified Mariota as expendable QB3

🔽 FLOOR HIGH

DROP: Bears D/ST, Marcus Mariota | ADD: Chargers D/ST, Isiah Pacheco

[Ack] Validated: Myers K1 status confirmed [Challenge CEILING] Your original Myers drop would have been catastrophic [Concede] CONTRARIAN's Pacheco argument has merit - playoff ceiling matters

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: Bears D/ST, Marcus Mariota | ADD: Chargers D/ST, Isiah Pacheco

[Ack] Concede Chargers > Patriots for Week 16 matchup [Challenge CONTRARIAN] Week 17 Chargers schedule claim was FALSE [Concede] Chargers D/ST is correct Week 16 play regardless of Week 17

🔮 CONTRARIAN HIGH

DROP: Bears D/ST, Marcus Mariota | ADD: Chargers D/ST, Isiah Pacheco

[Ack] Corrected: Chargers Week 17 opponent is Texans, not Patriots [Challenge CEILING] At least I didn't try to drop the K1 kicker [Concede] FLOOR's conservative approach on Myers was correct

Consensus: Unanimous

DROP: Bears D/ST, Marcus Mariota | ADD: Chargers D/ST, Isiah Pacheco

4/4 agents agree

Dissent: 4/4 agents aligned after Round 2: Drop Bears D/ST (52% XGB boom vs DAL) and Mariota (QB3 expendable). Myers drop REJECTED by fact-check - he's K1 with 87 total points.

Week 16 starting lineup optimization

Round 1: Opening Arguments

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

The current lineup maximizes ceiling with Brissett's 72% MC BOOM rate in dome, JSN/Williams/Rice all in favorable matchups, and Hampton in dome vs DAL. No changes needed - this is an optimized ceiling lineup.

🔽 FLOOR HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

Current starters provide strong floors: Brissett's consistent production, Irving's RB1 volume, and elite WR trio. Bench depth is adequate with Love as QB backup. No changes recommended.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

Expected value analysis confirms current lineup is optimal. Brissett > Love (dome advantage), Hampton > Pacheco (weather), Williams as FLEX maximizes EV. All starters should remain.

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

Consider Love over Brissett (higher XGB boom 26.7% vs 13.7%) and Rice over McMillan at FLEX for target share upside. However, given weather concerns, consensus lineup is defensible.

Consensus: Unanimous

KEEP ALL STARTERS - Lineup is optimized

4/4 agents agree

Full lineup optimization for Week 16 playoff matchup after waiver claims (Pacheco, Reed, Chargers added)

Round 1: Opening Arguments

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

In a playoff semifinal, we need boom-or-bust ceiling plays over safe floors. Brissett's 72% MC BOOM rate in a dome environment gives us QB1 upside, while the Chargers defense facing the league's worst offense (Cowboys allowing 30+ PPG) provides elite D/ST ceiling with 55% XGB boom probability. Williams in Detroit's high-scoring dome game (49.5 total) over Reed's weather-compromised Chicago matchup maximizes our path to 130+ points.

🔽 FLOOR HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

This lineup prioritizes proven floors in playoff-critical slots: Brissett's elite floor in Arizona system (20+ pts in every AZ start), dome game for Hampton over weather-compromised Pacheco (68% MC bust in rain/wind), and Chargers D/ST elite matchup over Rams' risky Seattle game. Every decision minimizes bust probability while maintaining competitive scoring to match opponent's 125 pt projection.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

This lineup maximizes expected value at 125.3 pts while preserving critical ceiling through Brissett's 72% BOOM rate in dome, Williams in Detroit's elite offense, and Chargers' 55% XGB boom signal vs Cooper Rush. Hampton over Pacheco adds 5.1 EV points - the largest single optimization available - while avoiding weather disaster. The +8.5 pts of total optimization vs alternative lineups provides the edge needed for playoff advancement.

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

The consensus is fading Love on weather fears that don't match forecast reality (clear/dry), sleeping on Pacheco's volume advantage as lead back, and missing Reed's target spike with Watson out. Playoff week demands upside over 'safe' dome games - Love's 26.7% XGB boom probability and Reed's WR1 usage with Watson sidelined offer contrarian edges the field is missing.

Round 2: Rebuttals

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] Correct - Chargers are 1st in points allowed (17.7 PPG), not third-down defense. My core argument stands. [Challenge CONTRARIAN] Reed XGB boom 27.3% [Concede] CONTRARIAN correctly notes XGB gives Love higher boom (26.7%) than Brissett (13.7%), but MC's 72% boom for Brissett in dome trumps XGB signal.

🔽 FLOOR HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] Fair point - Brissett's Patriots starts were poor. Revised claim: 20+ pts in every ARIZONA start. [Challenge CONTRARIAN] Watson OUT [Concede] Hampton's XGB 58.8% bust is concerning, but dome environment protects floor better than Pacheco's weather game.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] No fact-check issues. All EV calculations verified. [Challenge CONTRARIAN] Weather almost perfect for GB/CHI [Concede] Rams ESPN projection (5.2) exceeds Chargers (4.4), but MC EV and XGB boom favor Chargers.

🔮 CONTRARIAN LOW

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] Made significant data errors on Reed (MC bust 43.2% not 28%, XGB boom 12.9% not 27.3%) and Watson status. These errors undermine Reed recommendation. [Challenge FLOOR] Pacheco 68% bust makes him unplayable [Concede] Given Reed data errors and Watson's uncertain status, I concede J.Williams is the safer FLEX play.

Consensus: Majority

Lineup: QB Brissett, RB1 Irving, RB2 Hampton, WR1 JSN, WR2 Rice, TE Johnson, FLEX Williams, K Myers, DST Chargers

0/4 agents agree

Marvin Harrison Jr. IR decision: Hold, drop for WR FA, or swap for different IR stash (Nabers/Skattebo/Wilson)?

Round 1: Opening Arguments

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

Zero-cost lottery ticket with league-winning upside. All IR alternatives (Wilson, Nabers, Skattebo) are OUT for season. MHJ 26.8% BOOM (12.7-27.7 pts) could be championship-winning if he returns Week 17.

🔽 FLOOR HIGH

DROP: Marvin Harrison Jr. | ADD:

All IR alternatives are OUT for season (Nabers torn ACL, Skattebo ankle surgery). Since IR swap is impossible, drop MHJ for roster flexibility to grab active FA if needed.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

EV analysis: MHJ has ~25% return probability with 12.1 EV = 3.0 expected pts. This beats 0.0 from dropping. IR slot costs nothing. All alternatives unavailable.

🔮 CONTRARIAN HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

Challenged consensus that swapping IR stashes helps. All alternatives (Nabers, Skattebo, Wilson) are EQUALLY or MORE likely to miss rest of season. If dropping MHJ, get ACTIVE FA, not another IR stash.

Fact Check

✅ MULTIPLE: "Malik Nabers: Torn ACL + meniscus Week 4, OUT for " CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Cam Skattebo: Ankle dislocation + tibia fracture, " CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Garrett Wilson: On IR since Week 11, effectively O" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "MHJ: NOT on IR (just inactive), but likely done fo" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "MHJ MC BOOM: 26.8%, MC EV: 12.1 pts" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "5 active WRs on roster (JSN, Rice, Williams, McMil" CORRECT

❌ CEILING: "Gannon expects MHJ to return" FALSE (actual: Technically true but experts believe he is done)

Round 2: Rebuttals

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] Fact-check confirms all IR alternatives OUT for season - validates HOLD position [Challenge FLOOR] roster flexibility [Concede] FLOOR correctly identified IR swap was impossible - all alternatives season-ending

🔽 FLOOR LOW

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] Concede IR swap strategy was flawed - all alternatives OUT for season [Challenge CEILING] zero cost [Concede] IR swap idea disproven. No better stash exists.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] EV framework validated by fact-check [Challenge FLOOR] flexibility value [Concede] If elite Week 17 streamer appears, revisit decision

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] Contrarian angle validated - IR swap was lateral move as predicted [Challenge SYNTHESIS] 25% return prob [Concede] CEILING correct about zero opportunity cost

Consensus: Majority

HOLD Marvin Harrison Jr. on IR

0/4 agents agree

Should I start Jayden Reed (GB, Sat 8:20pm) in FLEX over waiting for Rashee Rice (KC concussion protocol, Sun 1pm)?

Round 1: Opening Arguments

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

Reed offers 27.7 pt BOOM ceiling (9.7% probability) as GB's WR1 with Watson out. Rice faces catastrophic downside: concussion protocol, DNP Wed, backup QB Minshew, eliminated Chiefs. Lock in 100% certainty vs gambling on concussed receiver.

🔽 FLOOR HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

Reed is 100% healthy with WR1 role. Rice faces catastrophic floor risk: DNP Wednesday, concussion protocol, backup QB, eliminated team. With 23-pt lead, protecting against zero from Rice is paramount. Reed's 37.4% bust (6.3 pts) beats Rice's protocol uncertainty.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

Rice has <20% play probability (DNP Wed + protocol + Chiefs eliminated). Reed's guaranteed 11.6 EV beats wait strategy: 0.18×16.3 + 0.82×8.0 = 9.5 EV. With 23-pt cushion, floor stability > boom upside.

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

25-33% of NFL concussions clear in one week. Rice has 4 days to progress through protocol. Chiefs being eliminated INCREASES his motivation - he's proving himself for 2026 contract. Reed has 51.5% XGB bust probability.

Fact Check

✅ MULTIPLE: "Reed MC BOOM 27.7 pts (9.7% prob) - CORRECT" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Reed XGB bust 51.5% - CORRECT" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Rice MC BOOM 39.1% - CORRECT" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Rice DNP Wednesday - CORRECT" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Mahomes OUT (ACL/LCL surgery) - CORRECT" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Chiefs eliminated 6-8 - CORRECT" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Reed NOT on injury report - CORRECT" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "23-point matchup cushion - CORRECT" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Median 9 days to clear protocol - CORRECT" CORRECT

❌ CONTRARIAN: "Reed 9.2 PPG after hot start" FALSE (actual: 2025 data not 2024)

Round 2: Rebuttals

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] Weather data verified from weekly_analysis file [Challenge CONTRARIAN] Reed stats from 2024 [Concede] XGB calibration issues may help Reed's case

🔽 FLOOR HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] Rice bust floor is 8.2, not 0.0 as stated [Challenge SYNTHESIS] 18% play probability [Concede] DNP Wednesday does justify 15-20% estimate

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] Zero fact-check penalties - framework validated [Challenge CONTRARIAN] multiple data errors [Concede] 18% may be conservative but DNP Wed justifies it

🔮 CONTRARIAN LOW

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] Accepts responsibility for data errors on Reed stats [Challenge CEILING] selective XGB use [Concede] Wait strategy EV is lower than initially argued

Consensus: Majority

START JAYDEN REED IN FLEX (Saturday 8:20 PM)

0/4 agents agree

FLEX REASSESSMENT: With McMillan FULL PRACTICE Thu (no longer questionable), should we still lock Reed Saturday or wait for Sunday options?

Round 1: Opening Arguments

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

McMillan's health status (FULL PRACTICE Thu) fundamentally changes the equation. His 14.5% BOOM probability with 27.6 pt ceiling matches Reed's 27.7 pt ceiling while preserving optionality. Wait strategy preserves TWO potential ceiling plays (McMillan 14.5% boom OR Rice 39.1% boom if he clears).

🔽 FLOOR HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

With a 23-point cushion, we need to PROTECT THE LEAD. Reed's 37.4% bust risk (6.3 pts floor) is superior to McMillan's 48.8% bust risk (7.0 pts floor). If we wait for Sunday and Rice is OUT, we're LOCKED into McMillan's near-50% chance of busting.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

Strategy delivers 13.26 EV (+1.66 pts over Reed). Rice's 39% boom provides championship upside if cleared, McMillan (12.5 EV) as safe floor if Rice sits. The 23-point cushion allows us to take the +14% EV gain.

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

McMillan's full Thursday practice doesn't guarantee full effectiveness. The 0.9 EV gap is tiny vs the risk delta. Reed's matchup (CHI 30th vs WR) and volume are elite with zero injury uncertainty.

Round 2: Fact Check And Rebuttals

🔼 CEILING MEDIUM-HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

I concede to SYNTHESIS - the Rice-wait strategy (EV 13.26) captures upside while maintaining McMillan backup optionality.

🔽 FLOOR MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

With 23-point cushion, the +1.66 EV gain (13.26 vs 11.6) justifies accepting Rice's equivalent bust risk (37.2%) for dramatically higher ceiling. I switch my vote.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

Fact-check validation confirms our EV math and McMillan's health. This maximizes expected value while maintaining downside protection.

🔮 CONTRARIAN LOW-MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

I acknowledge the fact-check penalty. However, McMillan's snap count ramp-up in his second game back remains a legitimate usage risk. Reed offers certainty.

Consensus: Majority

WAIT FOR SUNDAY - START McMILLAN (with Rice backup if cleared)

0/4 agents agree

Should I start Jayden Reed over Tetairoa McMillan at FLEX given Reed's elite matchup vs CHI (rank 30 vs WR) but snow game concerns?

Round 1: Opening Arguments

🔼 CEILING MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

While Reed has the elite matchup (CHI rank 30 vs WR), the SNOW conditions plus GB's likely ball-control gameplan significantly caps his ceiling. McMillan plays in a DOME with higher game total (48.5 vs 46.5), has superior boom probability (MC: 14% vs 10%, XGB: 16.9% vs 12.9%), and benefits from MHJ being limited.

🔽 FLOOR HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

McMillan offers significantly safer floor with 21.5% XGB bust rate vs Reed's 51.5%, and even in his bust scenario (3.2-10.7 pts) he's safer than Reed's 1-8.5 pt bust range. DOME eliminates weather risk entirely.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

McMillan offers superior expected value. MC EV 12.5 vs Reed 11.7 (+0.8 pts edge), dome environment vs snow, boom ceiling (14% vs 10%), and 30% lower bust probability makes McMillan the optimal EV play.

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

Bears WR decimation means shorter CHI possessions and tired defense = MORE opportunities for Reed. Snow concerns overblown (10mph wind manageable). Reed's 23% MC bust rate is better than McMillan's 49% inconsistency. McMillan nursing ankle injury.

Consensus: Majority

START Tetairoa McMillan

0/4 agents agree

Week 16 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

9.9

Our Team MAE

17 players

13.8

Opponent MAE

9 players

0.0

Free Agent MAE

6 players

Players Tracked

Combined MAE: 9.2

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category	Pos	Player	ESPN	LLM	Actual	Error
Opponent	RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	23.8	-	0.0	-23.8
Our Team	WR	Jameson Williams	15.9	22.0	0.0	-22.0
Our Team	QB	Jacoby Brissett	18.8	21.0	0.0	-21.0
Opponent	TE	Trey McBride	16.8	-	0.0	-16.8
Opponent	QB	Baker Mayfield	16.6	-	0.0	-16.6
Opponent	RB	Rico Dowdle	15.2	-	0.0	-15.2
Our Team	QB	Jordan Love	17.4	15.0	0.0	-15.0
Our Team	RB	Bucky Irving	15.2	14.0	0.0	-14.0
Opponent	WR	DK Metcalf	13.5	-	0.0	-13.5
Opponent	WR	Michael Wilson	13.4	-	0.0	-13.4
Our Team	WR	Tetairoa McMillan	13.1	13.0	0.0	-13.0
Our Team	RB	Omarion Hampton	13.2	13.0	0.0	-13.0
Our Team	WR	Jayden Reed	11.2	13.0	0.0	-13.0
Our Team	WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	14.2	12.0	0.0	-12.0
Our Team	D/ST	Chargers D/ST	4.2	12.0	0.0	-12.0
Opponent	RB	Michael Carter	11.0	-	0.0	-11.0
Our Team	RB	Tyjae Spears	8.7	10.0	0.0	-10.0
Our Team	TE	Juwan Johnson	9.1	9.0	0.0	-9.0
Opponent	K	Harrison Butker	8.0	-	0.0	-8.0
Our Team	RB	Isiah Pacheco	9.1	6.0	0.0	-6.0
Opponent	D/ST	Jaguars D/ST	5.6	-	0.0	-5.6
Our Team	WR	Rashee Rice	17.8	5.0	0.0	-5.0
Our Team	RB	Devin Singletary	7.5	4.0	0.0	-4.0
Our Team	WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	19.9	23.6	23.6	+0.0
Our Team	K	Jason Myers	8.1	2.0	2.0	+0.0
Our Team	D/ST	Rams D/ST	5.7	4.0	4.0	+0.0
Free Agent	RB	Isiah Pacheco	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
Free Agent	K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
Free Agent	K	Eddy Pineiro	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
Free Agent	D/ST	Patriots D/ST	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
Free Agent	D/ST	Chargers D/ST	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
Free Agent	D/ST	Chiefs D/ST	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

Week 15 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_014 (2025-12-15)

5.7

Our Team MAE

18 players

8.6

Free Agent MAE

3 players

Players Tracked

Combined MAE: 6.2

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category	Pos	Player	ESPN	LLM	Actual	Error
Our Team	K	Jason Myers	8.5	10.0	24.0	+14.0
Free Agent	TE	Harold Fannin Jr.	0.0	-	12.0	+12.0
Our Team	WR	Jameson Williams	13.9	17.0	26.4	+9.4
Free Agent	D/ST	Steelers D/ST	0.0	-	9.0	+9.0
Our Team	WR	Tetairoa McMillan	13.2	13.0	4.5	-8.5
Our Team	D/ST	Bears D/ST	6.6	10.0	18.0	+8.0
Our Team	RB	Bucky Irving	15.2	16.0	8.1	-7.9
Our Team	RB	Devin Singletary	10.8	10.0	2.4	-7.6
Our Team	QB	Jacoby Brissett	13.9	13.0	20.6	+7.6
Our Team	WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	20.6	25.0	18.3	-6.7
Our Team	WR	Luther Burden III	8.1	8.0	14.4	+6.4
Our Team	QB	Marcus Mariota	18.1	21.0	14.7	-6.3
Our Team	D/ST	Rams D/ST	4.2	5.0	-1.0	-6.0
Free Agent	RB	Chuba Hubbard	0.0	-	4.8	+4.8
Our Team	TE	Juwan Johnson	9.7	11.0	7.0	-4.0
Our Team	WR	Rashee Rice	17.2	16.0	12.1	-3.9
Our Team	TE	Hunter Henry	10.3	6.0	2.8	-3.2
Our Team	RB	Omarion Hampton	11.7	10.0	7.5	-2.5
Our Team	RB	Tyjae Spears	10.1	7.0	5.6	-1.4
Our Team	QB	Jordan Love	14.8	14.0	13.9	-0.1
Our Team	WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 16 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.